Cox Automotive Lifts Sales Forecast to 16.1 Million

What Cox now expects for 2026

Full-year forecast

16.1 million units

Prior forecast

15.8 million units

Retail forecast

13.1 million units

Fleet forecast

3 million units

Lease forecast

3 million units

Lease penetration

23%

Cox Automotive raised its full-year 2026 new-vehicle sales forecast to 16.1 million units, up from a prior forecast of 15.8 million. The revision also lifts the retail outlook to 13.1 million units, with fleet and lease volume each forecast at 3 million units. Lease penetration was lowered to 23% (opens in a new tab).

The company credits strong summer sales, improving credit availability and sustained consumer demand for the upward revision. Cox identifies costly fuel, high borrowing rates and economic uncertainty as continuing challenges. The company also attributes pressure on leasing to the federal EV tax credit's loss.

Jeremy Robb said the change reflects more confidence in demand. "The biggest change in this update is that we have more confidence in demand than we did three months ago," he said. "The market has consistently outperformed expectations despite higher fuel prices, elevated interest rates and softer consumer sentiment."

September and the third quarter

September's sales pace is expected near 16.3 million, down from 16.6 million a year earlier and 16.8 million in August. Sales volume is still expected to rise 6.5% year over year, helped by 25 selling days, one more than a year ago. Labor Day falls in September this year after being counted in August last year.

Third-quarter volume is forecast at 4,116,206 units, below both the second quarter and the same period a year ago. Cox projects cumulative sales through September at 12,055,059 units.

Charlie Chesbrough described the market as steady despite pressure on buyers. "September new-vehicle sales should maintain the path the market has been on since March, which is a low-mid 16 million pace," he said. "Strong fleet sales, wealthier vehicle buyers, and more access to credit are all keeping this market relatively strong in the face of many headwinds."

Who is gaining share

Asian brands are forecast to hold more than half of U.S. new-vehicle sales for a second straight quarter, according to Cox. The Detroit 3 are expected to take just over 36% share, the lowest on record. GM is still expected to be the top-selling automaker for the quarter and year to date, though its sales and share softened versus a year ago.

Toyota is forecast to grow year over year in the third quarter and is closing the gap with GM, but faces supply constraints for key models. Hyundai Motor Group is expected to post a strong quarter, with the group's sales forecast to exceed Ford Motor Company's.

What it means for used-car shoppers

Cox forecasts 20.5 million used retail sales in 2026 and 38.5 million total used-vehicle sales. Pre-owned sales are forecast at 2.6 million units. Total used sales for the year are expected to land slightly below 2025.